How Democracies Die — What History Reveals About Our Future
Lessons for Systems and Institutions that we are a part of
Preamble
I am back in Atlanta, Georgia, landed here just the last night (November 3rd 2024), and there is a palpable tension and deep exhaustion with the Presidential elections that close in a couple of days.
I was in the city in sunnier times of March, and unlike the last time, everyone that I have met, and who are willing to dialogue on politics spoke of anxieties, fears, and even dramatic despair. Even the skies are grey and ponderous on the eve of the elections. The state of Georgia is a swing state and would indelibly impact the futures of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
By the time, my blog gets read by my small network of readers, the results would have emerged with a high probability of half the nation in celebration, and the other half licking their wounds — such is the nature of fragmentation in the country today. For those of us in India, we went through an equally intense period for the Lok Sabha elections — I was in minority then — talking about at best 250 seats for BJP, and was the recipient of taunts, and many a joke.
What helped me retain some bit of sanity during the Lok Sabha elections was an excellent book by two Harvard Professors — Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt. The book was provocatively titled — “How Democracies Die”, and I suspect that it was suggested to me by a friend from IIMA — Makarand Sahasrabuddhe. While the two authors have put forward their research on ‘how’ democracies die on a significant number of countries in Latin America and Europe — their research cautions all of us who are citizens of a democratic nation.
This blog is not just a review but a reminder that if democracies fail in smaller institutions ranging from community organizations that we are a part of, the local government offices, the hospitals and schools we work with, of housing committees that we live in — it is very likely that the notion of democracy as we experience and exercise would get steadily eroded in the coming months or years.
Part 1
How Democracies Die — the Radar that reveals the Rot within
It is believed that Joe Biden read this book in the year of its launch — 2018, and sometimes carries it with him to hare passages, and which the Economist describes as arguably the most important book of the Trump era (2016–2020). The line that caught my eye was where the authors argue that in our time, democracies still die but by different means, “less at the hand of men with guns and more by elected leaders”.
The authors, Levitsky and Ziblatt, offer a framework based on their research of the last 100 years or so of many a democratic nation that have died and slipped into autocracies, fascism and moral bankruptcy. The framework to me is a radar that warns every concerned citizen. At the cost of being minimalistic, the framework speaks of four ‘key indicators’ of authoritarian behavior.
I have chosen to present the ‘radar’ in the form of a table as the authors have presented it — do look at the checklist as you go over your experience of living in India or in USA:
The second and third indicators are easier to visualize or judge for these are also manifestations of how the first indicator is valued within.
The fourth indicator is easiest to measure — for it is very easy to discern in terms of policies, acts, and decisions taken by those in power.
I liked the simplicity of the indicators — but the book is a must read for those who want to know the underlying research that was done across countries by the two authors and how this was created.
Part 2
How is the ‘Mother of Democracy’ faring?
On March 29th, 2023, the Prime Minister of India declared that India is “indeed the mother of democracy”, and cited the Vedas and the Mahabharata that non-hereditary rulers first existed in India as a contrast from the generally held perception that the Athenian City State in the 6th century BCE was the first democratic institution.
I am not an expert on the Mahabharata and even if I were to agree with Mr. Modi’s findings and claims, the current state of democracy in India is quite alarming given the radar painted out by the two authors.
Key Factor 1 — Rejection of (or Weak commitment to) democratic rules of the Game
There is some evidence that suggests that the present leader and governments in the past may have tried some of these tactics.
Violent insurrections and mobs have marred our history — whether it was the demolition of the Babri Masjid, or even the recent mob violence in Kolkata to overthrow Mamta’s government.
The arrest of key political leaders including Kejriwal through newly created acts and laws signal for some alarm.
Key Factor 2 — Denial of the Legitimacy of Political Opponents
On this key factor, the recent experience is a little more alarming — there are already statements being made that consider the opposition leaders as subversive and or criminals.
The legitimacy of Political opponents as well as intellectuals is getting questioned by those in power.
Key Factor 3 — Toleration or encouragement of Violence
The Manipur crisis — and it continues, signals an extremely dangerous trend that we are witnessing in India today.
The most depressing story recently was that of how the Gujarat Government allowed the release of eleven convicts sentenced to life imprisonment for the gang rape of Bilkis Bano and later garlanded by VHP. Thankfully the activists never gave up and the Supreme court took on the government of Gujarat.
All political parties in India have tolerated if not encouraged violence in the past — and for a nation that claims to be mother of democracy — this factor suggests that we are slipping into autocratic leadership.
India continues to take an ambivalent stance against Putin and against Israel — and while i am all for pragmatics — it is not clear why we are ambivalent to these leaders, and yet wish to assert how we deal with the Canadian government.
Key Factor 4 — Readiness to curtail civil liberties of opponents, including the media
The proposed act on social media has many people concerned as youtubers and others would be discouraged and vehemently so with bureaucratic processes, laws and regulations. The UAPA as a stringent anti-terror law has been the basis for many an attack.
The attack on intellectuals that is most disconcerting has been the Bhima Koregaon arrests — perhaps the most alarming signal that speaks of a steady erosion of any political stance that is seen as threatening by those in power.
This section signals to alarming trends in Indian democracy. While i supported the Modi government in 2016, I carry deep reservations on how the present leadership is supporting democracy today.
Part 3
Saving Democracy in local and national systems … the TWO NORMS
For some years, I was a part of the residential committee that manages the homes and the community we are living in. The pandemic triggered my commitment to stand for election in the local system, and then take on tasks and responsibilities of the system. My experience has been extremely painful for I realized that voluntary systems such as the committee was neither easy nor insulated one from barbs, criticisms, and even lawsuits. It also allowed for a sense of compassion for leaders whom we vote for and the tremendous stress they may be experiencing, while we only look at the privileges, the powers that accompany such roles.
However, my experience also enabled me to understand how seductive it can be to slip into autocracy and in the name of ‘results’ — the guardrails of the system can be done away with. Democracy cannot succeed if people do not invest into as the authors put it — the two NORMS of mutual toleration and of forbearance.
Norm 1
Mutual Tolerance
The first norm offered by the authors is that of ‘mutual toleration’ — that of accepting the results of free and fair election where the opposition has won and of respecting the opinions of those who come with different political stances and opinions.
Mutual tolerance cannot be built if ‘Othering’ is rampant in the systems that we are a part of for the latter (an unconscious process of projection) creates fragmentation and hate. One sees this manifesting in India as well as in USA. It is the notion of ‘Othering’ whether construed on aspects of color, race, gender, caste — that renders mutual tolerance difficult.
The parliamentary debates and the incendiary speeches to garner votes, if not resonating with mutual tolerance, create only violence and sabotage democratic institutions.
Norm 2
Forbearance
Forbearance, as the authors put it, is defined as the intentional restraint of one’s power in order to respect the spirit of the law.
Given the rising trend to believe in ‘hypermasculine leaders’ and their agile leadership, forbearance as a value is threatened as never before. Complex political and social problems are seen as simple issues by such hyper-masculine leaders and most of us are quite seduced by their claims of resolving these challenges — and this perhaps becomes the time when we (the elected leader as well as the voters) are willing to forgive acts of power going beyond the spirit of law.
It is this process that makes the incumbent leader feel omnipotent and beyond the law and when forbearance is forsaken — it is this process that reveals that democracy is dying.
Conclusion
The authors Levitsky and Ziblatt state that to save democracy, “we must be humble and bold … and prevent it from dying within”. They stress on the need to restore democratic norms in all systems, and to believe in diversity within, otherwise nations are doomed towards the ‘sugary highs of populism, nativism, and demagoguery’.
For me, D&I is not a corporate slogan to hire more women and minorities, but the foundation stone of any democratic institution where diversity is dignified and respected for only then real dialogue would emerge and only then new stances and solutions can be discovered.
